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MyTrendTimer :
Dow Jones Industrial Average
analysis of
September 13, 2007 |
Weekly Comment about this asset/index |
Last Friday, employers reported that payrolls fell by 4,000 in August, when Wall Street economists were expecting payrolls to grow by 110,000, according to estimates.
Problems in housing, the financial markets and the first job decline in four years have made a Federal Reserve rate cut next week all but certain.
But it has also raised talk about a recession -- and whether the Fed is able to prevent one.
Bernanke's Fed has come under fire from some quarters for not acknowledging the impact of the crisis stemming from the subprime market, which caters to risky borrowers, quickly enough or responding aggressively enough to give the economy a boost.
No publication will be issued on the week from September 16 to September 23. |
|
Financial Instrument | Value |
Asset Name | Dow Jones Industrial Average |
Symbol | DJI |
Currency | USD |
Underlying instrument | DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (DIA) |
|
Trend/Signal | Value |
Current Trend/Signal |
Bullish (last signal was a Buy)
|
Strength | 0.5 |
Date | September 13, 2007 |
|
Generated Signals Chart |
 |
|
Generated Signals |
Nature | Date (dd.MM.yyyy) | # Days previous op. | Quote | Result previous op. |
Buy | 11.05.2001 | 000 | 10'869.00 | +0.00 |
Sell | 20.07.2001 | 070 | 10'600.00 | -2.47 |
Buy | 28.12.2001 | 161 | 10'115.00 | -4.58 |
Sell | 05.02.2002 | 039 | 9'655.00 | -4.55 |
Buy | 22.02.2002 | 017 | 9'985.00 | +3.42 |
Sell | 04.06.2002 | 101 | 9'695.00 | -2.90 |
Buy | 07.05.2003 | 337 | 8'560.63 | -11.70 |
Sell | 20.07.2004 | 440 | 10'149.07 | +18.56 |
Buy | 15.11.2004 | 118 | 10'550.24 | +3.95 |
Sell | 18.04.2005 | 153 | 10'071.25 | -4.54 |
Buy | 21.06.2005 | 064 | 10'599.67 | +5.25 |
Sell | 27.06.2005 | 006 | 10'290.78 | -2.91 |
Buy | 18.07.2005 | 021 | 10'574.99 | +2.76 |
Sell | 06.10.2005 | 080 | 10'287.10 | -2.72 |
Buy | 15.11.2005 | 040 | 10'715.00 | +4.16 |
Sell | 18.07.2006 | 244 | 10'795.00 | +0.75 |
Buy | 02.08.2006 | 015 | 11'160.00 | +3.38 |
Info : Current | 12.09.2007 | 406 | 13'291.65 | +19.10 |
|
Return and result of the differents strategies |
Time Weighted Return of | Value (over the Period) |
Buy and Hold | +16.03 |
Model Buy and Hold | +22.29 |
Model Long Only | +15.92 |
Model Short Only | -5.49 |
Model Long and Short | +9.55 |
|
Time Weighted Return of | Value (Annualized) |
Buy and Hold | +2.50 |
Model Buy and Hold | +3.47 |
Model Long Only | +2.48 |
Model Short Only | -0.86 |
Model Long and Short | +1.49 |
|
Model OverPerf vs Model Buy and Hold | Value (Annualized) |
Model Long vs Model Buy and Hold | -0.99 |
Model Short vs Model Buy and Hold | -4.33 |
Model Long and Short vs Model Buy and Hold | -1.98 |
|
Model OverPerf vs Buy and Hold | Value (Annualized) |
Model Long vs Buy and Hold | -0.02 |
Model Short vs Buy and Hold | -3.35 |
Model Long and Short vs Buy and Hold | -1.01 |
|
|
Various statistical indicators for this asset |
Last 20 quotes Statistics | Value |
Mean quote | 13'194.62 |
Standard Deviation | 164.76 |
Lowest quote | 12'845.78 |
Highest quote | 13'448.86 |
Median | 13'147.32 |
Max Daily Loose percent | -2.10 |
Max Daily Gain percent | 1.90 |
Simple Perf. | 2.02 |
|
Last 5 quotes Statistics | Value |
Mean quote | 13'251.68 |
Standard Deviation | 104.54 |
Lowest quote | 13'113.38 |
Highest quote | 13'363.35 |
Median | 13'238.37 |
Max Daily Loose percent | -1.87 |
Max Daily Gain percent | 1.38 |
Simple Perf. | -0.10 |
|
Previous year Statistics | Value |
Mean quote | 11'423.13 |
Standard Deviation | 489.80 |
Lowest quote | 10'667.39 |
Highest quote | 12'510.57 |
Median | 11'588.98 |
Max Daily Loose percent | -2.12 |
Max Daily Gain percent | 2.98 |
Simple Perf. | 16.29 |
First quote | 10'717.50 |
Last quote | 12'463.15 |
|
Current year Statistics | Value |
Mean quote | 12'999.58 |
Standard Deviation | 491.63 |
Lowest quote | 12'050.41 |
Highest quote | 14'000.41 |
Median | 13'025.41 |
Max Daily Loose percent | -3.29 |
Max Daily Gain percent | 3.20 |
Simple Perf. | 6.65 |
First quote | 12'463.15 |
Last quote | 13'291.65 |
|
Seasonal Return by Month for this asset |
Month | Cumulated TWR Return. | #Month | Average TWR Return |
January | -6.75 | 8 | -0.84 |
February | -9.11 | 8 | -1.14 |
March | +4.11 | 8 | +0.51 |
April | +11.91 | 8 | +1.49 |
May | +5.79 | 8 | +0.72 |
June | -8.26 | 8 | -1.03 |
July | -3.76 | 8 | -0.47 |
August | +3.06 | 8 | +0.38 |
September | -24.60 | 8 | -3.08 |
October | +23.94 | 7 | +3.42 |
November | +19.43 | 7 | +2.78 |
December | +9.37 | 7 | +1.34 |
|
TWR Return by Year for this asset |
Year | TWR Return. |
2000 | -5.15 |
2001 | -8.19 |
2002 | -16.37 |
2003 | +25.32 |
2004 | +3.15 |
2005 | -0.61 |
2006 | +16.29 |
2007 | +6.65 |
|
Year 2004 to 2005 Monthly performance |
Month | Year | Performance |
January | 2004 | +0.33 |
February | 2004 | +0.91 |
March | 2004 | -2.14 |
April | 2004 | -1.28 |
May | 2004 | -0.36 |
June | 2004 | +2.42 |
July | 2004 | -2.83 |
August | 2004 | +0.34 |
September | 2004 | -0.92 |
October | 2004 | -0.52 |
November | 2004 | +3.99 |
December | 2004 | +3.40 |
January | 2005 | -2.72 |
February | 2005 | +2.63 |
March | 2005 | -2.44 |
April | 2005 | -2.96 |
May | 2005 | +2.70 |
June | 2005 | -1.84 |
July | 2005 | +3.56 |
August | 2005 | -1.50 |
September | 2005 | +0.83 |
October | 2005 | -1.22 |
November | 2005 | +4.53 |
December | 2005 | -1.79 |
|
Year 2006 to 200n Monthly performance |
Month | Year | Performance |
January | 2006 | +1.91 |
February | 2006 | +1.52 |
March | 2006 | +1.03 |
April | 2006 | +1.91 |
May | 2006 | -2.62 |
June | 2006 | +1.22 |
July | 2006 | -0.60 |
August | 2006 | +1.87 |
September | 2006 | +3.33 |
October | 2006 | +2.95 |
November | 2006 | +0.83 |
December | 2006 | +1.97 |
January | 2007 | +1.27 |
February | 2007 | -2.80 |
March | 2007 | +0.70 |
April | 2007 | +5.74 |
May | 2007 | +4.32 |
June | 2007 | -1.51 |
July | 2007 | -1.57 |
August | 2007 | +1.10 |
September | 2007 | -0.49 |
|
Quotes Used | Value |
Link on Quote File | DJX_20070913.csv |
Quote File Used | /local/java/TrendTimer/quote_data/DJX_20070913.csv |
# of Quotes | 1918 |
File first date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 03.01.2000 |
File first quote | 11'455.00 |
File last date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 12.09.2007 |
File last quote | 13'291.65 |
First data considered (dd.MM.yyyy) | 19.05.2000 |
First data considered | 10'700.00 |
Min. Quote date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 09.10.2002 |
Min. Quote value | 7'286.27 |
Max Quote date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 19.07.2007 |
Max Quote value | 14'000.41 |
Max daily drop date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 14.04.2000 |
Max Daily Drop percent | -6.07 |
Max daily gain date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 24.07.2002 |
Max daily Gain percent | 6.35 |
|
Signals Statistics | Value |
# Generated Signals | 17 |
Avg # op. by year | 2.65 |
# Days | 2312 |
# Days in years | 6.42 |
Biggest loose (Long only) | -4.55 |
Min # days uninvested (before Buy Signal) | 15 |
Max # days uninvested (before Buy Signal) | 337 |
Min # days invested (before Sell Signal) | 6 |
Max # days invested (before Sell Signal) | 440 |
|
|
Technical | Value |
Program Name | MyTrendTimer v0.99.97.1 |
Java Version | 1.6.0_02 |
OS Name | Linux |
OS Version | 2.6.21-1.3194.fc7 |
User Name | marc |
Calculation Time (Ms) | 1619 |
Tech Id | 487371076-146960 |
XML output file | DJX_20070913.xml |
Web Root | http://www.MyTrendTimer.com/ |
Complete Xml URL | http://www.MyTrendTimer.com/xml/DJX_20070913.xml |
# Warnings found | 5 |
Generated on (dd.MM.yyyy HH:mm:ss) | 13.09.2007 20:54:11 |
|
Disclaimer |
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Prior to execution of any security trade, you are advised to consult your authorized financial advisor to verify the accuracy of all information. Neither MyTrendTimer nor anyone is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You can freely redistribute the information found herein as long as this disclaimer is included unmodified. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Some indexes, benchmarks or brand names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. |
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