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MyTrendTimer Financial Market Trend Timing report

Market Timing / Quantitative Analysis on major indexes.
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December 3rd, Bullish Trend (Buy Signal)
USD to CHF
Swiss Market Index SMI
December 3rd, Bearish Trend (Sell Signal)
NASDAQ Composite
Standard and Poors 500
Standard and Poors 100
Dow Jones Industrial
 
Older reports
 
November 27th, 2018
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
USD to CHF
 
November 19th, 2018
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
USD to CHF
 
 
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News on MyTrendTimer Market Trend Timing report
   
A brief history with the latest developments and signals issued.

   
   
2008  
January 1st
  • We start year 2008 with bearish trend (last operation was a sell) on the major US and European indexes :

    Dow Jones Industrial (sell signal issued on 23rd November 2007, 12980.88)
    Standard and Poors 100 (sell signal issued on 26th November 2007, 657.79)
    DJ Stoxx 50 (sell signal issued on 9th November 2007, 3673.35)
    Swiss Market Index SMI (sell signal issued on 1st November 2007, 8891.47)
    Standard and Poors 500 (sell signal issued on 21st November 2007, 1416.77)
    Russell 2000 (sell signal issued on 5th November 2007, 790.44)
    USD to CHF (sell signal issued on 9th July 2007, 1.2171).

    Year 2008 started with bullish trend (last operation was a buy) on technology heavy nasdaq :

    NASDAQ Composite (buy signal issued on 24th December 2007, 2713.50)
January 3rd
  • A sell signal is issued on Nasdaq (sell price is 2602.68, -4.08%).
February 20th
  • In order to constantly improve our model, we compared it with timingcube.com 2007 Nasdaq signals :
 
MyTrendTimer.com 2007 Nasdaq Signals Timingcube.com 2007 Nasdaq Signals
  Some observations :
  • 2007 was not a good year for Nasdaq market timing...
  • Our model clearly outperformed timingcube.com during year 2007. (as in 2006)
  • Trend Timing can be cruel and give some really wrong signals ("buy high and sell low", "cash on panic")
  • We don't have the "cash signal" to act has a stop loss when timing is too bad.
  • Buy and hold would have performed better than both models.
  • Trend Timing, trend following and quantitative analysis can't be 100% right...
  In fact, a model can have been backtested over a long time, markets can behave quite differently without any notice... This is the first "subprime crisis" that we face. No model could include this kind of move before it happened. That is a major weakness of trend timing and mathematical model utilisation in trading. When this happen, you have several possibilities when you run your model :
  • Stick to your model whatever happen. What we do, at least for now.
  • Create new models and new websites such as timingcube.com (created in 2001), tradeguru.com (created in 2003), etftide.com (created in 2007). When your model is not really pertinent anymore and signals goes bad, just create a new website and advertise your new model...
April 3rd
  • A buy signal is issued on Russell 2000 (buy price is 713.57, -9.72%).
April 23rd
  • Discontinued the "Weekly Comment" on each tracked asset. A description of the asset is displayed instead.
May 13th
  • A buy signal is issued on Nasdaq Composite Index (buy price is 2495.12, -4.13%).
May 16th
  • A buy signal is issued on Dow Jones Industrial Average (buy price is 12986.80, +0.05%).
June 2nd
  • A sell signal is issued on Dow Jones Industrial Average (sell price is 12503.82, -3.72%).
June 24th
  • A sell signal is issued on Russell 2000 (sell price is 707.92, -0.79%).
June 27th
  • A sell signal is issued on Nasdaq Composite Index (sell price is 2'315.63, -7.19%).
August 5th
  • A buy signal is issued on Russell 2000 (buy price is 721.04, +1.85%).
August 11th
  • A buy signal is issued on US Dollar (buy price is 1.0838, -10.95%).
September 15th
  • A sell signal is issued on Russell 2000 (sell price is 689.76, -4.34%).
December 26th
  • A sell signal is issued on US Dollar (sell price is 1.0701, -1.26%).
   
   
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