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MyTrendTimer Financial Market Trend Timing report

Market Timing / Quantitative Analysis on major indexes.
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April 2nd, Bullish Trend (Buy Signal)
None for now, thanks to coronavirus...
April 2nd, Bearish Trend (Sell Signal)
Dow Jones Industrial
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March 25th, 2020
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
March 14th, 2020
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
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Principles and common investment pitfalls
Investing money is not trivial. It can event be quite complex and frustrating. Below are some basic generalization that are accepted as true and that can be used as a basis for reasoning or conduct in your investment decisions. Those rules should be followed to avoid the common mistakes. A check of those precepts before you send any order to your broker is a good idea. This site and the "trend timing" model (quantitative analysis) which is implemented has been designed to avoid those pitfalls, except the investment of your household money. You would need to scrupulously follow the signals and be strong to avoid those common traps !

warning signTo refuse to sell with the fall warning signTo feel married at a company
Nobody likes to lose money nor to recognize that a placement was awkward. However, when a value drops durably, it is to better sell quickly and without states of heart. Better to lose 7% on a stock and to gain 15% on another that to lose 30% to have delayed too much. Because you made good trading on an stock in the past, you believe that that will reproduce. Non sense ! Or because your grandfather you with bequeathed its Coca-Cola stocks, you do not dare to sell them...
warning signTo listen to the "good advise" warning signTo believe in its good faith
Do not imitate the buddy who praises profits mirific: it never speaks to you about its losses! Be also wary of the "trading opportunities" of the professionals: they often subjective without value even... are thus remunerated! Lastly, be unaware of the passions with the mode: when the good bargains are published in the press, quite informed people already benefited from it. To try to admit that you neither are endowed with a supernatural intuition nor protected by a good star from finance. You are only one small fish in an ocean characterized by the storms and the sharks.
warning signTo refuse the "expensive" stocks warning signTo buy the cheap stocks
It is difficult even impossible to know if an asset which goes up is with a peak or full ascending inclined! Historically, the stocks which have a Price Earning ratio ("P/E ratio") high are those which pay best. And the analysis show that the stocks which reach a historical peak (the "new high") tend to still go up. One can think that it is a good business, but it also should be wondered why they are cheap... Even if certain values are underestimated, the risk is great that they remain it. You will not thus benefit any from it! The Efficient market hypothesis also state that you can't find cheap stocks.
warning signTo buy with the fall warning signTo choose according to the dividend
You have 1000 shares of a company whose price drops, you repurchase some to increase this position. You average cost price is for sure lower but it is not inevitably a good idea because the fall can continue. Better is worth to diversify it. Many investors privilege the actions with high dividend. They box certainly a little cash, but to really earn money, better is worth to choose shares with strong growth which report more than pocket money.
warning signTo play at the professionals warning signTo place the money of the household.
Temptation is large to touch with the instruments which post incredible returns by leverage : certificates, options, futures, warrants, hedge funds... But the disasters can have the same width! Basic rule: the stock market is not a casino, do not invest in products of which you do not understand the mechanisms perfectly. To place money which one will need soon is a bad calculation. The risk is great that, at the moment or you will need cash, it is the worst period to sell. It is wise to invest only the money for which one does not have short-term need.
warning signTo react immediately  
Following the stock market from day to day is enthralling, but that should not lead to buy and sell unceasingly - except playing the fast speculation with large sums. Vis-a-vis peaks of euphoria or blues, it is enough to look at the curves over a longer period. A catastrophic result over one week is relativized very well by stretching the curve on one, two or five years.  
What is quantitative analysis ?
A business or financial analysis technique that seeks to understand behavior by using complex mathematical and statistical modeling, measurement and research. By assigning a numerical value to variables, quantitative analysts try to replicate reality mathematically. Quantitative analysis can be done for a number of reasons such as measurement, performance evaluation or valuation of a financial instrument. It can also be used to predict real world events such as changes in a share price.
In broad terms, quantitative analysis is simply a way of measuring things. Examples of quantitative analysis include everything from simple financial ratios such as earnings per share, to something as complicated as discounted cash flow, or option pricing. Although quantitative analysis is a powerful tool for evaluating investments, it rarely tells a complete story without the help of its opposite - qualitative analysis. In financial circles, quantitative analysts are affectionately referred to as "quants", "quant jockeys" or "rocket scientists".
Quantitative analysis should solve many of the common traps or pitfalls explained above !
Technical Analysis Has Been a Treasured Tool for Traders for Centuries
Technical analysis has made leaps and bounds over the past few decades due to technology advances, the Internet, and software programming evolution. It was not that long ago that a TA enthusiast would have to perform the complex calculations on his own behalf, graph detailed point-and-figure charts, or studiously count various wave stages and retracements demanded by the Elliott Wave Theory. Today, a simple point-and-click is all that is necessary to implement a complicated momentum oscillator or draw where resistance and support lines are expected to be. Yes, TA has come a long way!
When you enroll in a forex course, you will undoubtedly learn the latest rendition of these invaluable techniques for guiding your entries and exits in highly volatile currency markets. In the absence of these technical tools, it is dubious whether intuitive brainpower alone could consistently produce winning trades or at least produce net results that would last. Trading robots would not exist either, and many hedge funds would go out of business. Such is not the case, and although academicians and investing purists would like to argue that technical analysis has no basis for being, there are numerous traders with large bank account balances that would beg to differ with their arguments.
Many historians believe that technical analysis had its origins back in Europe and Japan in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Commodity traders of old were perhaps the first ones to observe that prices were influenced by a number of variables and represented a balance between competing supply and demand forces. They noticed that the weather, the seasons, the economy, politics, and even human psychology had an impact on pricing behavior. When patterns began to repeat themselves on a seasonal basis, the idea was born that past behavior could repeat and portend the direction that future price movements might take.
The theory of momentum also began to take shape. Once again, observations of market action indicated that trends would continue for a bit of time before new information was assimilated and consequently redirected supply and demand forces to search for a new equilibrium. Price, repetitive behavior, and the tendency for markets to move in trends, often resembling wavelike patterns, became the early foundation for charting price behavior, analyzing the results, and then forecasting expected future movements.
Flash forward a few centuries, and then you have the latest evolved state of the art, right there on your desktop, the result of thousands of hours invested to use numbers and simple charts to make sense out of mountains of forex market data. Who knew that lowly candlestick formations emanated from rice farmers in Japan, and today, they are accepted almost without question as a quick indication of the forces that shape the markets for securities, commodities and currencies.
The primary benefit of technical analysis is its inherent flexibility. Skills can be applied across all forms of investment vehicles and also across varying timeframes. As a point in fact, many traders confirm the presence and strength of an apparent trend by viewing it from several differing timeframes. If it appears on 5-minute charts, then it may also reveal itself on 15-minute, hourly, and even daily charts in some cases.
The most overused phrase ever heard on a trading floor is, The trend is my friend! Every trader lives to find a strong trend, and then ride it like a surfer until it reverses. Technical analysis helps with the search, provides a high probability confirmation, and enables the trader to catch the wave and hang ten for profit thereafter.
December 2010
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