The MyTrendTimer Market Trend Timing Home Page Logo
MyTrendTimer Financial Market Trend Timing report

Market Timing / Quantitative Analysis on major indexes.
Signals and News Help/HowTo Principles About
 
December 10th, Bullish Trend (Buy Signal)
USD to CHF
December 10th, Bearish Trend (Sell Signal)
NASDAQ Composite
Standard and Poors 500
Standard and Poors 100
Dow Jones Industrial
Swiss Market Index SMI
 
Older reports
 
December 3rd, 2018
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
USD to CHF
 
November 27th, 2018
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
USD to CHF
 
 
Archived reports
 
2005 Archive Page
2006 Archive Page
2007 Archive Page
2008 Archive Page
2009 Archive Page
2010 Archive Page
2011 Archive Page
2012 Archive Page
2013 Archive Page
2014 Archive Page
2015 Archive Page
2016 Archive Page
2017 Archive Page
2018 Archive Page
MyTrendTimer : Swiss Market Index of April 4, 2007
Weekly Comment about this asset/index
The University of Zurich's Centre for Economic Research (KOF) said it has hiked its GDP forecasts to 2.4 pct, up from 2.1 pct for 2007, and to 3.5 pct from 1.5 pct in 2008. "GDP growth will temporarily fall in the second and third quarters. But, towards the end of the year the quarterly growth rates will have already returned to figures above 2 pct and remain there until the end of the forecast horizon," Kof said. The institute added that it expects consumer price inflation to fall to 0.3 pct this year with a "slightly higher rate" expected for 2008. On interest rates, KOF forecast a further hike of 25 basis points by the third quarter of 2007. The target value for the three-month Libor will then be 2.5 per cent Signal is stable.
Financial InstrumentValue
Asset NameSwiss Market Index
SymbolSSMI
CurrencyCHF
Underlying instrumentXMTCH on SMI (XMSMI)
Trend/SignalValue
Current Trend/Signal Bullish (last signal was a Buy)
Strength0.8
Date (dd.MM.yyyy)04.04.2007
Generated Signals Chart
A chart of Swiss Market Index SSMI dated April 4, 2007 to backtest the trend timer model buy and sell signals
Generated Signals
NatureDate (dd.MM.yyyy)# Days previous op.QuoteResult previous op.
Buy11.03.20020006'496.60+0.00
Sell11.06.20020916'330.30-2.56
Buy13.05.20033364'538.60-28.30
Sell02.07.20044165'606.80+23.54
Buy15.11.20041365'674.30+1.20
Sell26.05.20065567'679.47+35.34
Buy01.08.20060677'944.10+3.45
Info : Current03.04.20072459'053.95+13.97
Return and result of the differents strategies
Time Weighted Return ofValue (over the Period)
Buy and Hold+24.57
Model Buy and Hold+39.36
Model Long Only+85.67
Model Short Only+24.94
Model Long and Short+131.98
Time Weighted Return ofValue (Annualized)
Buy and Hold+4.79
Model Buy and Hold+7.67
Model Long Only+16.70
Model Short Only+4.86
Model Long and Short+25.72
Model OverPerf vs Model Buy and HoldValue (Annualized)
Model Long vs Model Buy and Hold+9.03
Model Short vs Model Buy and Hold-2.81
Model Long and Short vs Model Buy and Hold+18.05
Model OverPerf vs Buy and HoldValue (Annualized)
Model Long vs Buy and Hold+11.91
Model Short vs Buy and Hold+0.07
Model Long and Short vs Buy and Hold+20.93
Various statistical indicators for this asset
Last 20 quotes StatisticsValue
Mean quote8'900.58
Variance16'345.06
Standard Deviation127.85
Lowest quote8'577.66
Highest quote9'089.85
Median8'833.75
Max Daily Loose percent-2.85
Max Daily Gain percent1.51
Simple Perf.3.17
Last 5 quotes StatisticsValue
Mean quote8'966.92
Variance3'436.97
Standard Deviation58.63
Lowest quote8'870.56
Highest quote9'053.95
Median8'962.25
Max Daily Loose percent-1.07
Max Daily Gain percent1.21
Simple Perf.0.98
Previous year StatisticsValue
Mean quote8'063.60
Variance166'944.34
Standard Deviation408.59
Lowest quote7'154.86
Highest quote8'835.63
Median7'995.25
Max Daily Loose percent-2.90
Max Daily Gain percent2.56
Simple Perf.15.85
First quote7'583.93
Last quote8'785.74
Current year StatisticsValue
Mean quote9'035.23
Variance35'975.80
Standard Deviation189.67
Lowest quote8'577.66
Highest quote9'345.62
Median8'961.64
Max Daily Loose percent-3.40
Max Daily Gain percent1.53
Simple Perf.3.05
First quote8'785.74
Last quote9'053.95
Seasonal Return by Month for this asset
MonthCumulated TWR Return.#MonthAverage TWR Return
January-1.048-0.13
February-7.568-0.95
March+3.828+0.48
April+15.278+1.91
May+4.797+0.68
June-6.167-0.88
July-3.047-0.43
August-0.747-0.11
September-15.067-2.15
October+13.827+1.97
November+14.557+2.08
December+8.587+1.23
TWR Return by Year for this asset
YearTWR Return.
2000+11.93
2001-21.11
2002-27.84
2003+18.51
2004+3.74
2005+33.21
2006+15.85
2007+3.05
Year 2004 to 2005 Monthly performance
MonthYearPerformance
January2004+4.53
February2004+1.08
March2004-3.10
April2004+2.77
May2004-2.55
June2004-0.14
July2004-1.28
August2004-2.26
September2004+0.80
October2004-1.86
November2004+1.51
December2004+4.57
January2005+1.37
February2005+2.77
March2005-0.03
April2005-0.99
May2005+4.37
June2005+2.05
July2005+5.56
August2005-1.27
September2005+5.86
October2005+2.00
November2005+5.27
December2005+2.38
Year 2006 to 200n Monthly performance
MonthYearPerformance
January2006+2.99
February2006+1.05
March2006+1.66
April2006+0.30
May2006-5.50
June2006+0.63
July2006+3.79
August2006+2.85
September2006+3.16
October2006+1.71
November2006-0.99
December2006+3.55
January2007+3.98
February2007-3.78
March2007+2.13
April2007+0.86
Quotes UsedValue
Quote File Used/local/java/TrendTimer/data/SMI_20070404.csv
# of Quotes1843
File first date (dd.MM.yyyy)04.01.2000
File first quote7'268.10
File last date (dd.MM.yyyy)03.04.2007
File last quote9'053.95
First data considered (dd.MM.yyyy)12.05.2000
First data considered7'736.70
Min. Quote date (dd.MM.yyyy)12.03.2003
Min. Quote value3'675.40
Max Quote date (dd.MM.yyyy)19.02.2007
Max Quote value9'345.62
Max daily drop date (dd.MM.yyyy)11.09.2001
Max Daily Drop percent-7.07
Max daily gain date (dd.MM.yyyy)24.09.2001
Max daily Gain percent6.70
Signals StatisticsValue
# Generated Signals7
Avg # op. by year1.36
# Days1847
# Days in years5.13
Biggest loose (Long only)-2.56
Min # days uninvested (before Buy Signal)67
Max # days uninvested (before Buy Signal)336
Min # days invested (before Sell Signal)91
Max # days invested (before Sell Signal)556
TechnicalValue
Program NameMyTrendTimer v0.99.92
Java Version1.6.0
OS NameLinux
OS Version2.6.18-1.2869.fc6
User Namemarc
Calculation Time (Ms)2683
Tech Id650015705-130900
XML output fileSMI_20070404.xml
Web Roothttp://www.myTrendTimer.com/
Complete Xml URLhttp://www.myTrendTimer.com/xml/SMI_20070404.xml
# Warnings found7
Generated on (dd.MM.yyyy HH:mm:ss)04.04.2007 18:13:24
Disclaimer
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Prior to execution of any security trade, you are advised to consult your authorized financial advisor to verify the accuracy of all information. Neither MyTrendTimer nor anyone is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You can freely redistribute the information found herein as long as this disclaimer is included unmodified. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Some indexes, benchmarks or brand names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Valid HTML 4.01